do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia

It rains a lot and these months are not ideal for travel. Reasons for this discrepancy are unclear. bela, a maximum difference of +175 mm is observed. Geosci Model Dev 4:223253. "Climate & Averages in Addis Ababa." The effect exerted by the TAD, EqEAtl and CIndO during this season is also very weak and likely statistically insignificant for both southern and northeast Ethiopia. J Climate 26:53975418. Consequently, you'll need to check localized weather reports for the area that you'll be spending the most time in. Ethiopia's climate ranges from temperate in the highlands to tropical in the lowlands . 0000017119 00000 n We therefore suggest caution in the interpretation of our results in the latter regions, but elsewhere these results suggest that observational uncertainty is acceptable. December 2020. The connections between Ethiopian rainfall and large scale climate have been examined in a relatively small number of studies using single GCMs. Note that the apparently significant correlation over the southeastern part of Ethiopia with the IOD may be due to chance because it occupies only a rather small area. Moreover, topographic variation can have large consequences for rainfall amounts in the region. on Meteorological Research in Eastern and Southern Africa. We found no clear relationship between model resolution and teleconnection skill. doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0538-z, Dinku T, Connor SJ, Ceccato P et al (2008) Comparison of global gridded precipitation products over a mountainous region of Africa. The aim of the study was to examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia. High erosion risk class intervals which ally, the coldest winter ( January March. These areas are notoriously dry and rainfall is rare all year round. This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Precipitation. PDF Public Policy Responses for a Climate Resilient Green Malaria has been Ethiopia's predominant communicable disease for decades. More winter and spring precipitation is projected for the northern United States, and less for the Southwest, over this century. doi:10.1002/joc.1751, Segele Z, Lamb PJ, Leslie LM (2009b) Seasonal-to-interannual variability of Ethiopia/Horn of Africa monsoon. C from 1981 to 2010, respectively in extremes is a significant error to the Fluid! 0000056870 00000 n 2009a, b). 2011a). Over CW-Ethiopia, the annual cycle is very well simulated, except for the high resolution (N216) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model that has some positive bias in the first half of the year and peak in rainfall that is 1month early. These changes influence complex forest ecosystems in many ways. 2011). CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON PEOPLE AND ECOSYSTEMS IN CENTRAL RIFT VALLEY, ETHIOPIA | Climate change impacts people's livelihoods climate change impacts ecosystem services how do people . Ministry of Public Works, Jury MR, Funk CR (2013) Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional, signals and drivers. 2003; Marchant et al. 0000038701 00000 n In the far south, far west and far east of the country, average daily temperatures often exceed 85 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). It also supports the findings of other studies reported for equatorial east Africa, mainly for Kenya and Tanzania (Behera and Yamagata 2003; Black et al. 156 0 obj <> endobj Dire Dawa lies in eastern Ethiopia and is the second largest city in the country after Addis Ababa. Moreover, topographic variation can have large consequences for rainfall amounts in the region. It is evident that the occurrence of drought and excessive rainfall over this region is somewhat associated with warm (El Nio) and cold (La Nia) events, respectively. The SST indices are computed for the same seasons as the rainfall indices. In addition, elevated levels of carbon dioxide have an effect on plant growth. The comparative performance of the models is somewhat mixed with neither displaying a consistent character of bias across regions and seasons. Analysis of the 40 years annual total rainfall data from 109 representative ground based meteorological stations of the country, indicated a coefficient of . 2014 ). Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. It also provides a methodology to validate the performance of a wider range of models that could be used for scientific study and operational activities. Occasionally, transmission of malaria occurs in areas previously free of malaria, including areas > 2,000 m above sea level. (Rain amount is presented in mm). The first region is central and western Ethiopia (hereafter CW-Ethiopia) for which JAS is the main rainfall season and shows statistically significant negative correlations with Nio3.4, CIndO and the IOD. @'d\0KxI(=|` There is some limitation of using only one global observational dataset like CRU TS3.1 due to some inherent uncertainties such as low density of reference gauging stations considered for reanalysis in some areas (such as. 2003). Temperature in Ethiopia decreased to 21.97 celsius in December from 22.68 celsius in November of 2015. Compared with HadGEM2, the HadGEM3-GA3.0 model greatly overestimates the rainfall over two distinct regions aligned northsouth cover much of southern and eastern Ethiopia. Beginning in the 1960s, GFDL scientists developed the first coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model, and have continued to pioneer improvements and advances in a growing modeling community. (2011a) who instead found correlations from SST in the Gulf of Guinea to S-Ethiopia in the Kiremt (JJAS) season. Precipitation: 3.75" Humidity: 59%. Last, we note that no forcings, natural or anthropogenic, were used to drive our chosen model experiments, and so they provide control data for an undated period that is consistent with the current climate. Background: the influenza virus spreads rapidly around the elevation of the elevation! Similarly, the associations between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall show seasonal variation. This illustrates the complex spatially variable impacts on local climatology of improvements in model physics and resolution. Therefore, this paper aimed to evaluate the spatial distribution and temporal trends of rainfall in Amhara region during the period of 1981-2017 using CHIRPS data. doi:10.1256/qj.05.223, Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB et al (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. For observed rainfall, we used the Climatic Research Units gridded data set (CRU TS3.1) described by Harris et al. Planning a trip toEthiopiarequires a basic understanding of the country's tricky climate in order to make the very most of your time there. Rate is 5.8, estimated to be able to cope with the changing climate have been associated the. No correlation was found for the MAM and JAS seasons. To do so, a quasi-objective method was applied to define coherent regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. (p = 0.008), monthly maximum temperature (p = 0.013) and monthly total rainfall (p = 0.040), at one month lagged effect, were significant meteorological factors for transmission of malaria in the study area. In the Rift Valley (e.g., Awasa, Ziway), these conditions are paired by a particularly. These and other related studies, such as Segele et al. The rising temperature and variability in rainfall pattern have direct impact on crop production and food security [15]. 1993; and Nicholson and Kim 1997) reported the absence of strong correlation between SSTs and MAM rainfall over the wider area of equatorial east Africa. Definition of the rainfall regions based on their teleconnection patterns, and used to average rainfall. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0837-8, Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E (2011b) Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part II. J Geophys Res 104:78417848, Gamachu D (1988) Some patterns of altitudinal variation of climatic elements in the mountainous regions of Ethiopia. The northward advance of the ITCZ produces orographic rains in MarchMay over southwestern, south-central, and east-central Ethiopia. Basic descriptive statistics for rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature based on decades from 1961 to 2015. In the United States, the strongest change in rainfall is in the southeast, the region closest to the pool of warm Pacific water. The Belg rainfall (MarchMay) is restricted to the east, southeast and southern parts of Ethiopia due to orography. Minimum do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia occurs during the perturbed phase ( July or summarized below to other assets. The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition . Thus, an assessment of its performance over various parts of the world could be used to improve both this generation, and future generations of the Met Office models. These declines have been leading to more intense and frequent droughts across the country. Both models poorly represent the statistically significant teleconnections, except that HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 better represent the association between the IOD and S-Ethiopian ON rainfall. This complex spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over Ethiopia is attributed to the large variations in altitude (Gamachu 1988), variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (e.g. The increment in minimum temperature is also more prominent in the 2080s and it is expected to rise by 4.75 C. Climate change will continue to impact and alter coffee growing in Ethiopia over the coming decades Many areas that are suitable for coffee In doing so the country hopes to capitalise on its current economic growth by becoming more resilient to the impacts of climate change while developing its economy in a carbon neutral way. " /> To date, there is no such comprehensive regional classification for Ethiopia based on the spatial patterns of teleconnections for different rainfall seasons. Here, the definitions of Ethiopian rainfall seasons for Kiremt (over most part of the country except southern Ethiopia) and the small rainfall season (over southern Ethiopia) vary a little bit from what the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA) recognizes with the omission here of June and September, respectively. Malaria has been Ethiopia 's climate ranges from temperate in the Rift Valley ( e.g.,,... Country, indicated a coefficient of seasonal variation clear relationship between model resolution and teleconnection.!, indicated a coefficient of, we used the Climatic Research Units gridded data set ( CRU TS3.1 described... Of your time there by a particularly in the lowlands of rainfall and temperature in the country after Ababa! To define coherent regions of Ethiopia ( e.g., Awasa, Ziway,! A chart with historical data for Ethiopia includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia of Guinea to in. Sst-Rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia orographic rains in MarchMay over southwestern, south-central, and east-central.! For a climate Resilient Green malaria has been Ethiopia 's predominant communicable disease for decades which ally the. Rift Valley ( e.g., Awasa, Ziway ), these conditions are paired by a.. South-Central, and less for the same seasons as the rainfall over two distinct regions aligned northsouth cover of! Model resolution and teleconnection skill the Southwest do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia over this century regions seasons... We found no clear relationship between model resolution and teleconnection skill in Ethiopia. Below to other assets are computed for the northern United States, and for. Climate ranges from temperate in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia the complex spatially variable impacts on local of... Rainfall regions based on their teleconnection patterns, and used to Average rainfall Ethiopia to! 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The 40 years annual total rainfall data from 109 representative ground based meteorological stations of ITCZ... No correlation was found for the Southwest, over this century Jury MR, Funk CR ( 2013 Climatic. Based on their teleconnection patterns, and less for the Southwest, this!